ARC funds cutting-edge research and strategic partnerships to predict, prevent, and prepare for catastrophic climate risks

The world faces escalating threats from climate tipping points—ice sheet collapse, ocean current disruption, and large-scale methane release. While efforts to cut emissions and remove carbon are essential and must accelerate, they are unlikely to be enough to address these looming threats. Working with top scientific and technical experts, ARC advances critical R&D to ensure emergency measures are responsibly developed, technologically ready, and scientifically sound—empowering leaders with the knowledge to make crucial decisions when it matters most.

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Thwaites Glacier could cause sea levels to rise by over 2 feet directly and up to 10 feet if its collapse triggers the rest of the Antarctic ice sheet to follow.

↑ Flooded bridge at Kościuszki Street in Kłodzko, 2024

↗︎ Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica (NASA)

Current projections suggest that global sea levels will rise by 0.2-2m in the coming decades. Sea level rise above 0.5m (possibly 1m in rich countries that can afford more coastal adaptation measures) would be catastrophic for 100s of millions of people currently living in low-lying coastal zones. We must do everything in our power to avoid it. This largely means addressing the problem at its source, the ice sheets at the poles, but could also include approaches to reduce levels directly.

Permafrost thaw lakes, increasingly prevalent due to warmer conditions, release methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide, contributing to further climate warming.

↑ Permafrost thaw ponds in Hudson Bay Canada, near Greenland (Steve Jurvetson)

↗︎ The Smog over NYC during the Canadian wildfires, as seen from Hoboken terminal

Overshooting the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target significantly increases the risk that we will trigger one or more Earth system tipping points. Some tipping elements, such as tundra destabilization and resulting methane emissions, or loss of highly reflective sea ice, would accelerate warming and exacerbate the overshoot period, making other tipping points more likely (the so-called tipping-point cascade scenario). Furthermore, anthropogenic sulfur emissions, largely from burning coal, are estimated to be “masking” (canceling an amount of warming that would be present otherwise) 0.5°C of warming globally through cloud brightening. This masked warming will be realized as these emissions are reduced through decarbonization and air quality efforts. The fact is that the world is already in overshoot, but we are (accidentally) brightening clouds with sulfur to avoid it (for now).

Coral is responsible for $375 Billion in economic activity.

↑ Net fishing on Aitutaki Island, Cook Islands. (Lauren-Kristine Pryzant)

↗︎ example of coral bleaching in National Marine Sanctuary of American Samoa (Wendy Cover/NOAA)

The ocean is the most important bulwark we have against a changing climate. The ocean is crucial in stabilizing global temperatures, absorbing over 90% of the excess heat caused by increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It also holds about 60 times more carbon than the atmosphere and absorbs 25-30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, making it the most important carbon sink on the planet. The oceans large-scale currents like AMOC help regulate climate by transporting warm water from the tropics northward and cold water southward, influencing weather patterns, sea level rise, and the carbon cycle. Finally, the vast biodiversity of the ocean (and the economies that rely on it) is acutely threatened by climate change.

In a 2°C world, 99% of corals are expected to die off, devastating ocean biodiversity and leading to an estimated loss of $375B in economic activity annually. Warming temperatures also reduce the amount of carbon the ocean can hold, threatening the ocean carbon sink. A significant slowdown or collapse of the AMOC would have dire consequences: drastically altered rainfall patterns, regional cooling in Europe, intensified storms in the tropics, disrupted marine ecosystems, and a reduced capacity for carbon and heat uptake. We must find ways to restore the ocean’s balance, protect fragile ecosystems, and stabilize (or even enhance) this natural carbon sink.

More than 24 billion tonnes of fertile soil disappear yearly due to desertification.

↑ Lobos Island desertification

↗︎ Hydroponic greenhouses with micro irrigation (USDA)

Climate emergencies will impact critical human systems in countless ways. Recent humanitarian disasters and pandemics show that emergency response cannot be reliant on donations or continuous government maintenance. While we must work to prevent tipping-point risks directly where possible, there are significant opportunities to build resilience in the human system by improving the knowledge and tools needed for warning systems, long-term planning, and deploying new solutions to problems like coastal vulnerability and desertification. Building resilience to catastrophic risks requires new ways of thinking about climate adaptation, and the conditions of deployment mean that sustained innovation is needed, with novel solutions combining science, engineering, policy, finance, and markets.

Top image: NASA and JPL/Caltech