CatRisk: AI Infrastructure for Catastrophic Climate Risk Reasoning


Year

2026

Grant Level

Seed Grant


Translating fragmented climate science into decision-grade reasoning for catastrophic risks like AMOC destabilization requires a judgment layer that no current tool supports. CatRisk builds that infrastructure: an AI-assisted system that constructs explicit causal-scenario chains, embeds expert judgment as reusable reasoning primitives, and produces decision-relevant artifacts for policymakers, security officials, and funders. By making assumptions inspectable and uncertainty legible, CatRisk shortens the path from emerging scientific insight to institutional action on tail climate risks.


Program Personnel

Fahd Husain

Program Lead

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Fahd Husain leads the AI for Cat Risk program and is a Fellow of Applied AI at Renaissance Philanthropy, where he serves as the Principal Investigator at Renaissance Philanthropy’s AI Scientific Ecosystem Landscape Analysis, where he builds knowledge systems that make AI legible and useful for discovery and decision-making.  He brings over a decade of machine learning experience across natural language processing, graph machine learning, human-AI collaboration, reinforcement learning and now language models. As a principal investigator on multiple DARPA projects, he has worked on counter-human-trafficking on the dark web, automating scientific knowledge extraction during the COVID-19 pandemic in partnership with the NIH and CDC, and accelerating causal modelling for Ethiopian food security with the Gates Foundation. Most recently, he was technical founder and head of ML at Mozilla.ai, a $30 million R&D studio focused on small, specialized language models and the open-source LLM stack. Fahd’s academic background spans mathematics, computational methods, political science and philosophy. He holds degrees from McGill University and the University of Toronto, and was a Program Scholar in Empirical Methods at the University of Michigan.

Seed Grants

ARC’s Seed grants will provide early-stage funding to catalyze promising ideas addressing catastrophic climate risks.

ARC Seed grants support promising ideas with exploratory efforts, scoping studies, concept development, early-stage research, and small pilot projects, to help develop and refine innovative concepts or unblock initial barriers.

Timeline: ARC Seed grants are provided for 3-6 month engagements.

Grant Amount: ARC’s Seed grants generally provide $30–100K in funding as well as deep engagement on project design and strategy.

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ARC’s Build grants will enable leaders to turn promising concepts into actionable programs.

ARC Build grants support the development of independent organizations or partnerships with existing entities, focusing on activities such as program planning, roadmapping, early implementation, and organizational development.

Timeline: ARC Build grants are provided for 6-month to 1-year engagements.

Grant Amount: ARC’s Build grants generally provide $100-400k in funding as well as strategic and operational support, and a variety of technical expertise.

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Scale Partners

ARC’s Scale grants will empower our partner organizations to achieve significant impact by advancing key program objectives.

ARC’s Scale Partnerships provide targeted support to help organizations working on challenges aligned with ARC’s mission to enhance their efforts addressing climate risks.

In addition to resources, we offer technical expertise, strategic guidance for organizational growth and research, and hands-on support in fundraising and partnership development. By working closely with our partners, we ensure that promising initiatives are well-positioned to succeed and grow.

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