Planning for Catastrophic Climate Risk
Catastrophic climate scenarios are dangerously understudied. There are no standard, accessible ways to assess global catastrophic risk in general. We know the least about the scenarios that matter most. This project will remedy the problem by developing robust, transparent, low-cost, and easily updated tools to assess catastrophic risk and the frameworks to make emergency decisions, even under deep uncertainty. The project will create “integrated catastrophe assessments,” which explore how catastrophic scenarios could unfold, and provide frameworks to identify mitigation options and make emergency decisions. The current potential tools include an updatable database on extreme risks, an AI assistant trained on the extreme risk database, a set of expert maps, and a framework for decision-making based on comparing the worst-case risks of different policy options.
Program Personnel
Prapthi Agarwala
Fellow
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Prapthi is a Product Manager at Schmidt Futures, interested in creating instrumental, tech-driven solutions to support communities most affected by climate change. Her experiences include developing machine learning models and geospatial tools for climate resilience, designing gen AI products for community benefits, and building a blockchain ledger to optimize food supply chains. Prapthi has held roles at Tesla, Nava Labs, UC Berkeley’s Data Science and Environment Institute, and Baaz. She is deeply committed to building sustainable systems that protect vulnerable populations facing climate risks. She holds dual degrees in Computer Science (B.S.c) and Business Administration (H.BA) with honours from Western University. Her work reflects a strong dedication to blending innovation with empathy to create a safer, more resilient future for all.
Zander Nassikas
Fellow
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Alexander (Zander) Nassikas recently served in the Biden Administration as a Senior Advisor to Secretary John Kerry in the Office of the Special Presidential Envoy for Climate in the Department of State. He led the team’s work in the Arctic and in Small Island Developing States as well as policy development for several areas of frontier climate technology. Before the State Department, Zander worked as a program officer in the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Action Team, covering India and China’s energy sectors. From 2014-2018, Zander was a research scientist in Woods Hole, Massachusetts at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, where he worked with Nobel Prize-winning scientist Richard Houghton. Together they developed a computer model that quantified global emissions from land use and land cover change and the role of forests in addressing climate change. He has a BA in Neuroscience from Wesleyan University and a Master’s in Global Affairs from Yale University.
Laurie Laybourn
Advisor
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Laurie Laybourn is executive director of the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative (SCRI), a think-do tank that develops capabilities for securing a better world even as complex environmental-driven risks escalate. An award-winning researcher, Laurie is also an associate fellow at Chatham House, a visiting fellow at the Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, and an associate fellow at the Institute for Public Policy Research. Laurie is also an advisor to the UK Climate Change Committee and adelphi think tank, and sits on the boards of the New Economics Foundation and the Economic Change Unit, an organisation he founded. Previously, he led the UK Health Alliance on Climate Change and has worked at the LSE, Oxford University, and the UK Parliament. Laurie regularly writes for a range of publications and appears on TV and radio.
Seed Grants
ARC’s Seed grants will provide early-stage funding to catalyze promising ideas addressing catastrophic climate risks.
ARC Seed grants support promising ideas with exploratory efforts, scoping studies, concept development, early-stage research, and small pilot projects, to help develop and refine innovative concepts or unblock initial barriers.
Timeline: ARC Seed grants are provided for 3-6 month engagements.
Grant Amount: ARC’s Seed grants generally provide $30–100K in funding as well as deep engagement on project design and strategy.
Turn your climate ideas into actionable programs.
Apply for a Seed Grant.
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Inland Sea Reflooding
Amir AghaKouchak
2024–2025
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Sulfur Tracking Program
Colleen Golja, Carla Roesch
2025
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Undercurrent
Kelly Kinetic, Shaun Kinetic, Lauren Murray, Lea Eaton
2025
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Enhancing Global South Capacity to Address Climate Emergencies
Rose Mutiso
2025
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Planning for Catastrophic Climate Risk
Prapthi Agarwala, Zander Nassikas, Laurie Laybourn
2025
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Carbon Removal as a National Security Imperative
Noah Deich
2025
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AI-Powered Social Science for Climate Emergencies Research
Allegra Cohen
2025
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The Arctic Climate Emergency Response (ACER) Initiative
Charlotte DeWald
2025
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The Climate Emergencies Resilience Lab
Deep Sciences Ventures
2025
Build Grants
ARC’s Build grants will enable leaders to turn promising concepts into actionable programs.
ARC Build grants support the development of independent organizations or partnerships with existing entities, focusing on activities such as program planning, roadmapping, early implementation, and organizational development.
Timeline: ARC Build grants are provided for 6-month to 1-year engagements.
Grant Amount: ARC’s Build grants generally provide $100-400k in funding as well as strategic and operational support, and a variety of technical expertise.
Turn your climate ideas into actionable programs.
Apply for a Build Grant.
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Arête Glacier Initiative
Brent Minchew, Lauren Mahle
2024–2025
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The Arctic Climate Emergency Response (ACER) Initiative
Charlotte DeWald
2025
Scale Partners
ARC’s Scale grants will empower our partner organizations to achieve significant impact by advancing key program objectives.
ARC’s Scale Partnerships provide targeted support to help organizations working on challenges aligned with ARC’s mission to enhance their efforts addressing climate risks.
In addition to resources, we offer technical expertise, strategic guidance for organizational growth and research, and hands-on support in fundraising and partnership development. By working closely with our partners, we ensure that promising initiatives are well-positioned to succeed and grow.
Get in touch
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Reflective
Dakota Gruener, Doug MacMartin
2024–2025
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Arête Glacier Initiative
Brent Minchew, Lauren Mahle
2024–2025