Post-collapse scene at the Fern Hollow Bridge (NTSB)

Planning for Catastrophic Climate Risk

Year

2025

Grant Level

Seed Grant

Focus Area

Building Resilience for Climate Emergencies

Catastrophic climate scenarios are dangerously understudied. There are no standard, accessible ways to assess global catastrophic risk in general. We know the least about the scenarios that matter most. This project will remedy the problem by developing robust, transparent, low-cost, and easily updated tools to assess catastrophic risk and the frameworks to make emergency decisions, even under deep uncertainty. The project will create “integrated catastrophe assessments,” which explore how catastrophic scenarios could unfold, and provide frameworks to identify mitigation options and make emergency decisions. The current potential tools include an updatable database on extreme risks, an AI assistant trained on the extreme risk database, a set of expert maps, and a framework for decision-making based on comparing the worst-case risks of different policy options.

Program Personnel

Luke Kemp

Fellow

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Luke researches the history and future of extreme global risk. He is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge, and a Visiting Fellow with the Cascade Institute. He has advised and led foresight studies for multiple international institutions, including the WHO and Convention on Biological Diversity. His work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, the New York Times, and the New Yorker. He holds both a Doctorate in International Relations and a Bachelor of Interdisciplinary Studies with first class honours from the Australian National University (ANU). His first book, Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse, will be published with Penguin in July 2025.  

Seed Grants

ARC’s Seed grants will provide early-stage funding to catalyze promising ideas addressing catastrophic climate risks.

ARC Seed grants support promising ideas with exploratory efforts, scoping studies, concept development, early-stage research, and small pilot projects, to help develop and refine innovative concepts or unblock initial barriers.

Timeline: ARC Seed grants are provided for 3-6 month engagements.

Grant Amount: ARC’s Seed grants generally provide $30–100K in funding as well as deep engagement on project design and strategy.

Turn your climate ideas into actionable programs.

Apply for a Seed Grant.

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Build Grants

ARC’s Build grants will enable leaders to turn promising concepts into actionable programs.

ARC Build grants support the development of independent organizations or partnerships with existing entities, focusing on activities such as program planning, roadmapping, early implementation, and organizational development.

Timeline: ARC Build grants are provided for 6-month to 1-year engagements.

Grant Amount: ARC’s Build grants generally provide $100-400k in funding as well as strategic and operational support, and a variety of technical expertise.

Turn your climate ideas into actionable programs.

Apply for a Build Grant.

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Scale Partners

ARC’s Scale grants will empower our partner organizations to achieve significant impact by advancing key program objectives.

ARC’s Scale Partnerships provide targeted support to help organizations working on challenges aligned with ARC’s mission to enhance their efforts addressing climate risks.

In addition to resources, we offer technical expertise, strategic guidance for organizational growth and research, and hands-on support in fundraising and partnership development. By working closely with our partners, we ensure that promising initiatives are well-positioned to succeed and grow.

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Current and Completed Projects Program Personnel Year